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Red Wings Putting Too Much Hope Into Past Performances?

Five 30-goal scorers on Detroit roster

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2 months ago

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Patrick Kane, detroit red wings
Pro-rated over 82 games, Patrick Kane was on pace for 33 goals in his first season with the Red Wings.

Yes, it’s true that the Detroit Red Wings will be suiting up five players with 30-goal seasons on their NHL resumes when they take the ice for the 2024-25 season. What’s also true is that more often than not, those 30-goal campaigns were achieved quite some time ago.

Both captain Dylan Larkin (33 goals) and winger Lucas Raymond (31) topped the 30-goal plateau last season. Alex DeBrincat, Patrick Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko are the others to go over 30 goals during an NHL season. All of them have achieved this milestone several times.

The thing is, for all of them, it’s been a minute or so since it happened. That being the case, are the Red Wings putting too much hope into past performances?

Is it wise, or even likely for that matter, to be expecting Kane, DeBrincat and Tarasenko to return to what they once were in terms of goal scoring? And if they fail to bring that type of output back to the future, how might it impact the chances of the Red Wings ending their eight-season playoff drought?

Kane Still Able

Kane’s Red Wings performance is what the hockey people like to call a small sample size. It’s 50 games, to be precise.

However, he did score 20 goals over those 50 games. Pro-rated over an 82-game season, that would compute to 33 goals.

Kane certainly is of the opinion that he can deliver more goals.

“I had 18 even-strength goals out of 20 goals, which is, you feel like, pretty good, but it should be bolstered up a little bit because you should have more success on the power play,” Kane said.

He’s gone over 30 goals in five NHL seasons, including a personal-best 46 goals in 2015-16. However, Kane’s last 30-goal campaign came in 2019-20 (33 goals).

His goal output over the past four seasons – 15, 26, 21 and 20. That works out to 20.5 goals per season.

DeBrincat Victim Of Hard Luck

The clanging sound continually heard throughout last season was DeBrincat shots ringing off the iron. If they kept a stat on how many times a player hit the post, DeBrincat would surely have been among the league leaders.

He’s scored exactly 27 goals each of the past two seasons, yet each campaign is being viewed as an off-year for the two-time 41-goal scorer. DeBrincat’s shooting percentage in 2022-23 with Ottawa was 10.3% and last season with Detroit, 11.4%. Both were well below his career average of 15.5%.

DeBrincat’s second 41-goal campaign came in 2021-22, his last season with Chicago and skating on the line with Kane. It might be too much to expect that level of output, but it’s not a stretch to suggest he can clear the 30-goal barrier next season.

Tarasenko Trending Downward

There are six 30-goal seasons on Tarasenko’s NHL stats sheet, highlighted by a career-high 40 goals in 2015-16. On the other hand, his most recent 30-goal campaign was when he tallied 34 times for St. Louis in 2021-22.

In the past two seasons, he’s netted 18 goals in 2022-23 and 23 goals in 2023-24. Like Kane, he thinks he can do more.

“I still have some, not only team, but personal goals, too,” Tarasenko said. “I know a lot of people say when you get older, it’s harder to get, but I believe it’s possible.”

In reality, at this stage, getting 25 goals from Tarasenko would be considered a solid season.

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